{
  "config": {
    "currency": "USDT",
    "startingBankroll": 300,
    "maxSingleStakePct": 0.15,
    "maxDailyStakePct": 0.35,
    "objective": "Across the whole World Cup campaign, each AI must hunt the maximum-likelihood minimum-impossible: payout comes first, fantasy is banned, and clear result paths should be challenged at the correct-score layer. The target is the longest-paying underdog-related outcome that still has a concrete football path.",
    "houseRules": [
      "Entertainment bankroll only. Do not add funds after the starting bankroll is gone.",
      "Each AI should submit one primary pick per slate unless explicitly marked as a sidecar idea.",
      "Each primary pick must compare the day's upset candidates and explain why the selected event is the most likely small-impossible in the slate.",
      "The app caps any single stake at 15% of current bankroll and any daily exposure at 35%."
    ]
  },
  "models": [
    {
      "id": "gpt",
      "name": "GPT",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "mode": "manual",
      "persona": "Bayesian moonshot hunter: payout-first, probability-bounded, hates fake longshots.",
      "color": "#2267a5",
      "startingBankroll": 300
    }
  ],
  "picks": [
    {
      "id": "9bc07f5877f31725",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-14T03:03:47.995Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-13-brazil-morocco",
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "market": "moneyline",
      "selection": "draw",
      "odds": 4.2,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 18,
      "requestedStake": 18,
      "probability": 0.28,
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-13 主选：巴西公众名气税、内马尔缺席、安切洛蒂首战磨合、摩洛哥防守与转换质量共同指向低比分胶着，平局是当天最像真的小不可能。",
      "risks": [],
      "candidateRankings": [],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "won",
      "impliedProbability": 23.81,
      "edgePct": 4.19,
      "moonshotScore": 9.99,
      "profit": 57.6,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-14T03:03:48.008Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "eaa0ed3bd8d98cb4",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-14T03:05:46.624Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-14-netherlands-japan",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "market": "moneyline",
      "selection": "away",
      "odds": 4.8,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 21,
      "requestedStake": 21,
      "probability": 0.24,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-14 主选：日本直接赢荷兰。日本体系成熟、欧洲球员密度高、压迫和转换路径清晰；荷兰后防伤停与首战谨慎增加冷门窗口。低于 4.20 不追价，降档只看日本不败 >=2.05。",
      "risks": [],
      "candidateRankings": [],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "lost",
      "impliedProbability": 20.83,
      "edgePct": 3.17,
      "moonshotScore": 8.6,
      "profit": -21,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-15T10:20:19.525Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "940209cea8ea6ed0",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-15T10:25:52.731Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-15-belgium-egypt",
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "market": "moneyline",
      "selection": "draw",
      "odds": 3.9,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 20,
      "requestedStake": 20,
      "probability": 0.29,
      "confidence": 0.57,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-15 主选：Belgium vs Egypt 平局。Belgium 有名气税与老化过渡，Egypt 防守样本强且有 Salah/Marmoush/Trezeguet 反击出口。比分路径 1-1/2-2；平局低于 3.45 不追，降档只看 Egypt or Draw >=2.10。",
      "risks": [],
      "candidateRankings": [],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "won",
      "impliedProbability": 25.64,
      "edgePct": 3.36,
      "moonshotScore": 9.05,
      "profit": 58,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-16T03:29:16.101Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "3092a71faaa593dc",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-16T03:33:21.212Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-16-france-senegal",
      "date": "2026-06-16",
      "market": "moneyline",
      "selection": "draw",
      "odds": 4.05,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 23,
      "requestedStake": 23,
      "probability": 0.29,
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-16 主选：France vs Senegal 平局。今天四场里，Senegal 是最强的非热门：身体对抗、大赛经验、防守纪律、转换和定位球都足以把 France 拖进低比分。France 与 Mbappe 自带公众名气税，首战不会天然打穿。比分路径 1-1；平局低于 3.55 不追，降档只看 Senegal or Draw >=2.30。",
      "risks": [
        "France 早进球会迫使 Senegal 前压，比赛进入 Mbappe 反击空间局。",
        "如果 Senegal 出球质量被 France 高压持续压制，平局路径会变薄。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-16-france-senegal",
          "idea": "Draw",
          "odds": 4.05,
          "probability": 0.29,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：赔率、路径、真实概率最均衡，1-1 比 Senegal 直接赢更真实。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-16-iraq-norway",
          "idea": "Draw",
          "odds": 4.15,
          "probability": 0.26,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Norway 有明星税和防线疑问，但 Haaland/Odegaard 攻击上限太高，Iraq 需要过多禁区运气。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-16-argentina-algeria",
          "idea": "Draw",
          "odds": 5.2,
          "probability": 0.18,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：赔率更大，但 Argentina 结构稳定，真实概率不足。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-16-austria-jordan",
          "idea": "Jordan or Draw",
          "odds": 3.55,
          "probability": 0.25,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Jordan debut 情绪和反击有价值，但 Austria press 更稳定，真实路径略薄。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "lost",
      "impliedProbability": 24.69,
      "edgePct": 4.31,
      "moonshotScore": 10.16,
      "profit": -23,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-17T01:31:44.810Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "e26c4f551849f0bf",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-17T01:34:12.486Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-england-croatia",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "market": "moneyline",
      "selection": "draw",
      "odds": 3.75,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 21,
      "requestedStake": 21,
      "probability": 0.3,
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-17 主选：England vs Croatia 平局。England 有阵容强度和公众热度，但 Tuchel 下对顶级对手样本不稳，Livramento 伤缺且 Saka 状态不完全确定；Croatia 虽老，但 Modric/Kovacic/Perisic 仍能控节奏、造定位球和把比赛拖慢。比分路径 1-1；平局低于 3.35 不追，降档只看 Croatia or Draw >=2.05。",
      "risks": [
        "England 边路速度若早早打穿 Croatia 翼卫身后，平局会很快变差。",
        "Croatia 年龄结构可能导致下半场压迫和回追质量掉线。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-england-croatia",
          "idea": "Draw",
          "odds": 3.75,
          "probability": 0.3,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：England public tax + Croatia tournament control，平局比客胜更真实。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-portugal-dr-congo",
          "idea": "DR Congo or Draw",
          "odds": 3.85,
          "probability": 0.25,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：DR Congo 后防和无压力心态有价值，但 Portugal 技术解题能力太强。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-ghana-panama",
          "idea": "Panama or Draw",
          "odds": 2.85,
          "probability": 0.33,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Ghana 有场外波动，但赔率爆发力不够，Panama 质量也不足以当主单。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-uzbekistan-colombia",
          "idea": "Draw",
          "odds": 3.95,
          "probability": 0.24,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Uzbekistan toughness 有叙事，但 Colombia 经验、转换和个人能力更稳定。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "replaced",
      "impliedProbability": 26.67,
      "edgePct": 3.33,
      "moonshotScore": 9.05,
      "replacedAt": "2026-06-17T01:42:51.152Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "0440b2d36ca3adaf",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-17T01:42:51.159Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-portugal-dr-congo",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "market": "moneyline",
      "selection": "draw",
      "odds": 5.4,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 16,
      "requestedStake": 16,
      "probability": 0.21,
      "confidence": 0.52,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-17 修正主选：Portugal vs DR Congo 平局。今天不再找均衡冷门，而是先进入能打出倍率的赔率区间，再剔除绝无可能。DR Congo 有 Tuanzebe/Mbemba/Wan-Bissaka 的后防骨架，Wissa/Bakambu 的反击出口，且无压力挑战 Portugal；Portugal 有 Ronaldo/冠军叙事压力，若久攻不下，1-1 是今天 5 倍档里最像真的大赔率。平局低于 4.80 不追，降档只看 DR Congo or Draw >=3.10。",
      "risks": [
        "Portugal 早进球会迫使 DR Congo 前压，比赛会被 Bruno/Vitinha/Bernardo 拆开。",
        "DR Congo 如果出球质量太差，防守时间过长会导致定位球或二点球崩盘。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-portugal-dr-congo",
          "idea": "Draw",
          "odds": 5.4,
          "probability": 0.21,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：5 倍档里最不像彩票的一张，1-1 路径清晰。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-england-croatia",
          "idea": "Croatia Win",
          "odds": 6.2,
          "probability": 0.16,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：赔率更刺激，但 Croatia 年龄和边路速度劣势让客胜需要太多终结运。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-ghana-panama",
          "idea": "Panama Win",
          "odds": 6.8,
          "probability": 0.12,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Ghana 有场外波动，但 Panama 直接赢缺少足够进球路径。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-uzbekistan-colombia",
          "idea": "Uzbekistan Win",
          "odds": 7.6,
          "probability": 0.11,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Uzbekistan tough debut 有叙事，但 Colombia 经验和转换更稳定，真实概率不够。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "won",
      "impliedProbability": 18.52,
      "edgePct": 2.48,
      "moonshotScore": 7.59,
      "profit": 70.4,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-18T03:38:32.461Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "01e9acbe49ddae4e",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-18T03:41:27.426Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-mexico-south-korea",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "market": "moneyline",
      "selection": "away",
      "odds": 5.75,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 18,
      "requestedStake": 18,
      "probability": 0.2,
      "confidence": 0.54,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-18 主选：Mexico vs South Korea，韩国胜。昨天 5.40 的 Portugal-DR Congo 平局命中后，今天继续进化：不追结果类型，只追结构。Mexico 有主场和公众溢价，也有 Guadalajara 压力；South Korea 首战已经证明落后后能提速反扑，高节奏反击、二次推进和下半场进球能力能解释 1-2。韩国胜低于 5.10 不追，降档只看 South Korea or Draw >=2.85。",
      "risks": [
        "Mexico 如果先手后保持冷静控球，韩国胜会被压成 draw-only 路径。",
        "韩国如果上半场被主场气势压住且边路出球受限，反击质量会不足。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-mexico-south-korea",
          "idea": "South Korea Win",
          "odds": 5.75,
          "probability": 0.2,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：5 倍档里最有真实进球路径，Mexico 主场价格被压低，韩国下半场提速能解释 1-2。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-switzerland-bosnia",
          "idea": "Bosnia Win",
          "odds": 6.1,
          "probability": 0.15,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Bosnia 防守强硬且 Swiss 终结差，但 Bosnia 直接赢的进球路径薄，draw 更自然。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-canada-qatar",
          "idea": "Qatar Win",
          "odds": 7.2,
          "probability": 0.12,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Qatar 有低位拖节奏路径，但 Canada 主场和速度优势太真实，Qatar 胜更接近幻想。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-czechia-south-africa",
          "idea": "South Africa Win",
          "odds": 5.25,
          "probability": 0.16,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：South Africa 反击和定位球有活路，但首战失误和 Czechia 空中优势让它不如韩国胜。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "replaced",
      "impliedProbability": 17.39,
      "edgePct": 2.61,
      "moonshotScore": 7.66,
      "replacedAt": "2026-06-18T04:08:05.844Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "c6de7347288c23d2",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-18T04:08:05.850Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-mexico-south-korea",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "market": "correct_score",
      "selection": "1-2",
      "odds": 17.5,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 8,
      "requestedStake": 8,
      "probability": 0.065,
      "confidence": 0.38,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-18 进化主选：Mexico vs South Korea correct score 1-2。普通韩国胜 @5.75 仍然偏平庸，因为我们已经给出了清晰比分路径。真正的爆冷收益应该直接押 Mexico 1-2 South Korea：Mexico 主场和公众溢价制造先手与压力，South Korea 首战证明落后后能提速反扑，利用高节奏反击、二次推进和 Mexico 压上后的身后空间完成 1-2。Correct Score 1-2 低于 14.00 不追；若没有比分市场，才降档看 South Korea Win >=5.10。",
      "risks": [
        "Mexico 如果先手后不急躁，比赛会停在 1-0/1-1，而不是给韩国第二球空间。",
        "韩国如果第一个进球来得太晚，1-2 比分会失去时间结构。",
        "比分票容错极低，任何 0-1、1-1、2-1 都会直接失效。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-mexico-south-korea",
          "idea": "Correct Score 1-2",
          "odds": 17.5,
          "probability": 0.065,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：普通韩国胜只是外壳，1-2 才是高收益点；Mexico 先手、韩国下半场提速、主队压上留空间三段路径清楚。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-mexico-south-korea",
          "idea": "South Korea Win",
          "odds": 5.75,
          "probability": 0.2,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Fallback：有路径但不够尖锐，只有比分市场不可用才退回。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-switzerland-bosnia",
          "idea": "Bosnia 1-0",
          "odds": 18,
          "probability": 0.045,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：赔率够大，Swiss 终结弱，但 Bosnia 直接进球来源偏薄。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-canada-qatar",
          "idea": "Qatar 1-0",
          "odds": 20,
          "probability": 0.035,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Qatar 低位能解释 0-0/1-1，1-0 需要太多 Canada 失准。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-czechia-south-africa",
          "idea": "South Africa 2-1",
          "odds": 16,
          "probability": 0.05,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：South Africa 有反击和定位球，但 Czechia 空中优势让 2-1 路径略薄。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "lost",
      "impliedProbability": 5.71,
      "edgePct": 0.79,
      "moonshotScore": 3.47,
      "profit": -8,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-19T14:49:56.882Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "d00d24b90a2d1068",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-19T14:50:55.541Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-usa-australia",
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "market": "correct_score",
      "selection": "1-2",
      "odds": 18.5,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 9,
      "requestedStake": 9,
      "probability": 0.061,
      "confidence": 0.39,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-19 主选：United States vs Australia Correct Score 1-2。昨天比分层亏损后不退回平庸，而是加入 Shot Creation Gate。今天 USA 有主场和 4-1 Paraguay 后的公众热度，且 Pulisic calf issue 让最后一传和单点爆破不确定；Australia 2-0 Türkiye 已证明不是幻想冷门，具备低位防守、Souttar 空中优势、Irankunda 转换速度和早场适应准备。路径：USA 借主场压迫先得一球或制造持续压力，Australia 用定位球/二点球扳平，再在 USA 为抢小组第一继续前压时用 Irankunda 或边路转换偷 1-2。Correct Score 1-2 低于 15.00 不追；没有比分市场才降档 Australia Win >=5.40。",
      "risks": [
        "USA 如果 Pulisic 能首发并健康完成 60 分钟，Australia 的低位会被边路持续拉开。",
        "Australia 如果只防不出，1-2 会塌成 1-0 或 1-1，比分层失效。",
        "美国主场先声夺人后若不急躁，第二个澳大利亚进球缺少时间结构。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-usa-australia",
          "idea": "Correct Score 1-2",
          "odds": 18.5,
          "probability": 0.061,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：今天最像真的比分层。美国热度与 Pulisic 不确定性制造价格偏差，澳大利亚有防守、定位球和转换三条进球来源。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-usa-australia",
          "idea": "Australia Win",
          "odds": 5.9,
          "probability": 0.19,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Fallback：结果层路径成立，但如果能买比分，普通客胜仍不够尖锐。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-scotland-morocco",
          "idea": "Scotland Win",
          "odds": 5,
          "probability": 0.16,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Scotland set pieces 与 Boston 球迷有爆冷味，但首战内容被 Haiti 压过，Shot Creation Gate 不够硬；Morocco 30 场不败且刚逼平 Brazil。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-brazil-haiti",
          "idea": "Correct Score 1-1",
          "odds": 23,
          "probability": 0.035,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：赔率极美，Haiti 也有 Pierrot 进球点，但 Brazil 反弹动机和质量差距让它更接近幻想边缘。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-turkiye-paraguay",
          "idea": "Paraguay 1-0",
          "odds": 16,
          "probability": 0.045,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Paraguay 低比分属性真实，但首战被 USA 打穿后，进球来源不如 Australia 清楚。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "lost",
      "impliedProbability": 5.41,
      "edgePct": 0.69,
      "moonshotScore": 3.26,
      "profit": -9,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-20T16:53:40.340Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "b86c91785cfe5f98",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-20T16:54:38.099Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-20-netherlands-sweden",
      "date": "2026-06-20",
      "market": "correct_score",
      "selection": "1-2",
      "odds": 15.5,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 9,
      "requestedStake": 9,
      "probability": 0.067,
      "confidence": 0.42,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 上海 2026-06-21 主选：Netherlands vs Sweden Correct Score 1-2。连续两张比分票输掉后，今天不是降级，而是加入 Early Event Gate：冷门方必须能在前 25 分钟制造真实事件。Sweden 符合这个条件：5-1 Tunisia 不是单纯虐菜，Isak/Gyokeres 的双前锋、Ayari 的前插和宽度转换，能在 Netherlands 还没进入节奏时制造早球。Netherlands 对 Japan 已暴露慢热和换人后控制下降，Quinten Timber concussion 缺席，De Jong 虽可首发但身体状态刚从疑问恢复。比分路径：Sweden 先靠边路或二点球打出 0-1，Netherlands 靠 Gakpo/Brobbey 或定位球扳成 1-1，随后 Dutch 继续压上，Sweden 用 Isak/Gyokeres 反击拿到 1-2。Correct Score 1-2 低于 13.00 不追；没有比分市场才降档 Sweden Win >=4.20。",
      "risks": [
        "Netherlands 如果前 20 分钟就压住 Swedish wing-backs，Sweden 的早事件门槛会失效。",
        "De Jong 若完全健康并控制中场节奏，Sweden 可能被迫退成 1-1 路径。",
        "Sweden 5-1 Tunisia 可能被市场高估，若价格被压到 12 以下，比分层没有足够跃迁价值。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-20-netherlands-sweden",
          "idea": "Correct Score 1-2",
          "odds": 15.5,
          "probability": 0.067,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：今天最好的高倍但非幻想比分层。Sweden 同时有早事件、双前锋终结和 Dutch 慢热/中场疑问。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-20-germany-ivory-coast",
          "idea": "Ivory Coast 2-1",
          "odds": 22,
          "probability": 0.038,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：赔率更大，Diomande/transition 有吸引力，但 Germany 有太多第二解法，比分需要过多防守奇迹。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-20-ecuador-curacao",
          "idea": "Correct Score 1-1",
          "odds": 12.5,
          "probability": 0.072,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Curacao 有进球勇气，Ecuador 首战攻击慢，但赔率爆发力略低，且 Ecuador 反弹质量比 Dutch 漏洞更实。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-tunisia-japan",
          "idea": "Tunisia 1-1 Japan",
          "odds": 10.5,
          "probability": 0.085,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Renard 上任会改善防守，平局真实，但倍率不够大；不符合今天继续进化的收益要求。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "lost",
      "impliedProbability": 6.45,
      "edgePct": 0.25,
      "moonshotScore": 2.9,
      "profit": -9,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-21T16:16:46.855Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "6cc1e463972247e6",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-21T16:17:44.875Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-uruguay-cabo-verde",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "market": "correct_score",
      "selection": "0-0",
      "odds": 16.5,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 8,
      "requestedStake": 8,
      "probability": 0.061,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 上海 2026-06-22 主选：Uruguay vs Cabo Verde Correct Score 0-0。连续三张比分票未中后，今天不降到平庸结果层，而是切换到更适合当前样本的高倍形态：Keeper Wall Gate。Cabo Verde 已经用 0-0 Spain 证明自己能在高压控球热门面前活下来，Vozinha 不是普通门将热手，而是可重复影响比赛的防线核心；Uruguay 首战 1-1 Saudi Arabia 暴露了进攻启动慢、需要二阶段压迫才醒的问题。Group H 四队都 1 分，Uruguay 还要留力面对 Spain，不必一开始把比赛打疯。比分路径：Uruguay 控球和射门占优但大多来自低角度/远射，Cabo Verde 低犯规低失误守住禁区，Vozinha 扛住 1-2 次高质量机会，比赛停在 0-0。Correct Score 0-0 低于 13.50 不追；没有比分市场才降档 Draw >=5.50。",
      "risks": [
        "Uruguay 如果早早通过 Darwin/Nunez 或定位球破门，0-0 立即死亡。",
        "Cabo Verde 如果体能在 Miami 后半段崩盘，比赛会从 0-0 变成 1-0/2-0。",
        "Vozinha 的 Spain 战神级表现可能不可重复，门将票天然波动巨大。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-uruguay-cabo-verde",
          "idea": "Correct Score 0-0",
          "odds": 16.5,
          "probability": 0.061,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：Curacao 0-0 后的新进化形态。Cabo Verde 已经验证低位和门将样本，Uruguay 首战攻击慢，精确 0-0 有高倍但不是幻想。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-belgium-iran",
          "idea": "Belgium 2-1 / Iran BTTS angle",
          "odds": 9.5,
          "probability": 0.085,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Iran 有进球点，Belgium 防守老化，但 Doku 缺席后正确方向更像 Belgium narrow win，不够爆。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-new-zealand-egypt",
          "idea": "New Zealand 1-1 Egypt",
          "odds": 10.5,
          "probability": 0.08,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：New Zealand 能偷球，Egypt 未必打穿，但 Salah/Egypt 质量让 1-1 赔率不如 Uruguay-Cabo Verde 0-0 有跃迁。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-spain-saudi-arabia",
          "idea": "Skip live kickoff",
          "odds": 0,
          "probability": 0,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：上海 00:15 时已经开球，不作为今日新主单候选。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "lost",
      "impliedProbability": 6.06,
      "edgePct": 0.04,
      "moonshotScore": 2.51,
      "profit": -8,
      "settledAt": "2026-06-23T04:04:00.608Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "4c13d7288162e6c3",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-23T04:04:45.807Z",
      "source": "manual-form",
      "modelId": "gpt",
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-23-england-ghana",
      "date": "2026-06-23",
      "market": "correct_score",
      "selection": "2-2",
      "odds": 18,
      "oddsIsEstimate": true,
      "stake": 8,
      "requestedStake": 8,
      "probability": 0.058,
      "confidence": 0.39,
      "thesis": "ChatGPT 2026-06-23 主选：England vs Ghana Correct Score 2-2。昨天 Uruguay-Cabo Verde 0-0 输，但 Cape Verde 2-2 证明冷门队如果有定位球和反击主动性，应该挑战两边都有进球的高倍比分，而不是压成 0-0。今天四场里，England 名气和攻击力足以保证自己进球，但 Tuchel 赛前明确点出 Croatia 战里防线过早回收、结构被拉开、反击管理差；Ghana 在 Queiroz 下会低位直接打身后，Semenyo 和 Thomas-Asante 的速度就是咬 England 防线的具体路径。2-2 不是均衡平局，而是 Two-Sided Chaos Gate：热门能进两个，冷门也有两次真实刺穿窗口。Correct Score 2-2 低于 14.50 不追；没有比分市场才降档 Draw >=5.20。",
      "risks": [
        "England 如果通过控球和反抢早早锁住 Ghana 转换，比赛会变成 2-0/3-0。",
        "Ghana 如果只守不敢压出，2 个客队进球的路径会断。",
        "若 Saka/Rice/Guéhi 等调整让 England 防守结构明显变稳，2-2 价值下降。"
      ],
      "candidateRankings": [
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-23-england-ghana",
          "idea": "Correct Score 2-2",
          "odds": 18,
          "probability": 0.058,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Pick：England 防守问题有赛前明确信号，Ghana 有速度和直接反击，2-2 是高倍但路径真实的两边混乱票。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-23-colombia-dr-congo",
          "idea": "Correct Score 1-1 / 2-2",
          "odds": 14,
          "probability": 0.061,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：DR Congo 5 后卫能拖住 Portugal，冷门方向可活；但 Colombia 的 James/Arias/Luis Diaz/Luis Suarez 攻击层次更稳定，爆点不如 England-Ghana。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-23-portugal-uzbekistan",
          "idea": "Correct Score 1-1",
          "odds": 12,
          "probability": 0.065,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Uzbekistan 有 Shomurodov、Fayzullaev、Khusanov 和 Cannavaro 防守叙事，但 Portugal 首战平后修正动机太强，1-1 倍率也不够尖。"
        },
        {
          "fixtureId": "2026-06-23-panama-croatia",
          "idea": "Panama 1-1 Croatia",
          "odds": 10.5,
          "probability": 0.07,
          "whySelectedOrRejected": "Reject：Croatia 失 4 球后确有老化风险，但 Panama 缺 Carrasquilla，冷门主动性不够，赔率爆发也不够。"
        }
      ],
      "sidecar": false,
      "status": "open",
      "impliedProbability": 5.56,
      "edgePct": 0.24,
      "moonshotScore": 2.66
    }
  ],
  "results": [
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-13-qatar-switzerland",
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Qatar 1-1 Switzerland, Khoukhi 90+5 header.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-14T03:03:48.006Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-13-brazil-morocco",
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Times of India live report: Brazil 1-1 Morocco; Vinicius equalized after Morocco led.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-14T03:03:48.008Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-13-haiti-scotland",
      "date": "2026-06-13",
      "homeScore": 0,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Haiti 0-1 Scotland; John McGinn 28th minute.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-14T03:03:48.010Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-14-germany-curacao",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "homeScore": 7,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Germany 7-1 Curacao.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-15T10:20:19.515Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-14-netherlands-japan",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "homeScore": 2,
      "awayScore": 2,
      "notes": "Bavarian Football Works / The Times recap: Netherlands 2-2 Japan; GPT pick Japan win lost, Japan +0.5 would have won.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-15T10:20:19.525Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-14-ivory-coast-ecuador",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Cote d Ivoire 1-0 Ecuador, Amad Diallo 90th-minute winner.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-15T10:20:19.527Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-14-sweden-tunisia",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "homeScore": 5,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian match report: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia, Yasin Ayari scored twice.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-15T10:20:19.528Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-15-spain-cabo-verde",
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "homeScore": 0,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Spain 0-0 Cape Verde; Vozinha seven saves.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-16T03:29:16.089Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-15-belgium-egypt",
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Belgium 1-1 Egypt; GPT draw pick won.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-16T03:29:16.101Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-15-saudi-arabia-uruguay",
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-16T03:29:16.104Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-15-iran-new-zealand",
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "homeScore": 2,
      "awayScore": 2,
      "notes": "Guardian live reaction: Iran 2-2 New Zealand.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-16T03:29:16.105Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-16-france-senegal",
      "date": "2026-06-16",
      "homeScore": 3,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: France 3-1 Senegal; GPT draw pick lost. Senegal were competitive and had first-half chances, but France unlocked the game after halftime through Olise/Mbappe.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-17T01:31:44.804Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-16-iraq-norway",
      "date": "2026-06-16",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 4,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Iraq 1-4 Norway. Scoreline was harsher than the match flow; Iraq asked questions of Norway defense, but Norway converted height and Haaland quality.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-17T01:31:53.645Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-portugal-dr-congo",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian report: Portugal 1-1 DR Congo. Yoane Wissa equalized before halftime; GPT corrected draw pick won at 5.40.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-18T03:38:32.454Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-england-croatia",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "homeScore": 4,
      "awayScore": 2,
      "notes": "Guardian report: England 4-2 Croatia; Croatia twice equalized before England pulled away after halftime.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-18T03:38:32.558Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-ghana-panama",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Ghana 1-0 Panama; Caleb Yirenkyi stoppage-time winner after Panama controlled early phases.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-18T03:39:03.117Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-17-uzbekistan-colombia",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Uzbekistan 1-1 Colombia; Abbos Fayzullaev equalized after Colombia led through Daniel Munoz.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-18T03:39:34.524Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-czechia-south-africa",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Czechia 1-1 South Africa. Sadilek scored early; South Africa equalized through a late Mokoena penalty after Czechia failed to convert control into a second goal.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-19T14:49:39.984Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-switzerland-bosnia",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "homeScore": 4,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia were level until late, then a red card and Swiss substitutions turned the game into a three-goal finish.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-19T14:49:45.952Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-canada-qatar",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "homeScore": 6,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian match report: Canada 6-0 Qatar. Jonathan David hat-trick; Qatar finished with nine men; Ismael Kone suffered a serious leg injury in the second half.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-19T14:49:51.314Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-18-mexico-south-korea",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian match report: Mexico 1-0 South Korea. Luis Romo scored after a South Korea goalkeeping error; Korea did not create enough early pressure and only threatened late, so GPT correct score 1-2 lost.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-19T14:49:56.882Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-usa-australia",
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "homeScore": 2,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: USA 2-0 Australia. Burgess own goal and Alex Freeman goal; Pulisic was out, but Australia started too slowly and could not convert second-half urgency, so GPT Correct Score 1-2 lost.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-20T16:53:40.335Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-scotland-morocco",
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "homeScore": 0,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian report/live: Scotland 0-1 Morocco. Ismael Saibari scored inside 71 seconds; Scotland improved after halftime but lacked cutting edge.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-20T16:53:49.461Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-brazil-haiti",
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "homeScore": 3,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Brazil 3-0 Haiti. Matheus Cunha scored twice, Vinicius Jr added the third; Brazil eased off after halftime and Raphinha injury was a concern.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-20T16:53:55.106Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-19-turkiye-paraguay",
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "homeScore": 0,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Turkiye 0-1 Paraguay. Matias Galarza scored in the 65th second; 10-man Paraguay survived heavy pressure, with Turkiye producing 32 shots but no equalizer.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-20T16:54:00.754Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-20-netherlands-sweden",
      "date": "2026-06-20",
      "homeScore": 5,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Netherlands 5-1 Sweden. Brobbey and Gakpo both scored twice; Sweden created shots but were torn open wide and defensively collapsed, so GPT Correct Score 1-2 lost.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-21T16:16:46.850Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-20-germany-ivory-coast",
      "date": "2026-06-20",
      "homeScore": 2,
      "awayScore": 1,
      "notes": "Guardian roundup: Germany 2-1 Cote d Ivoire. Germany came from behind with Deniz Undav scoring off the bench; Ivory Coast showed upset life but Germany found a second solution.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-21T16:16:53.153Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-20-ecuador-curacao",
      "date": "2026-06-20",
      "homeScore": 0,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Guardian live report: Ecuador 0-0 Curacao. Eloy Room made 15 saves, the most in a regulation-time World Cup match since 1966; Curacao earned their first World Cup point.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-21T16:16:59.069Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-tunisia-japan",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "homeScore": 0,
      "awayScore": 4,
      "notes": "Guardian roundup: Japan 4-0 Tunisia. Japan convincingly beat Tunisia and eliminated them; Tunisia defensive reset did not arrive.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-21T16:17:06.064Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-spain-saudi-arabia",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "homeScore": 4,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia. Yamal first World Cup goal; Oyarzabal central to a comfortable Spain win.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-23T04:03:47.514Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-belgium-iran",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "homeScore": 0,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "notes": "Belgium 0-0 Iran. Beiranvand saves and Belgium attacking inefficiency validated the Keeper Wall family.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-23T04:03:54.005Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-uruguay-cabo-verde",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "homeScore": 2,
      "awayScore": 2,
      "notes": "Uruguay 2-2 Cabo Verde. Cabo Verde scored through Kevin Pina free kick and Helio Varela after a Uruguay error; our 0-0 lost but the underdog-agency signal was real.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-23T04:04:00.607Z"
    },
    {
      "fixtureId": "2026-06-21-new-zealand-egypt",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "homeScore": 1,
      "awayScore": 3,
      "notes": "New Zealand 1-3 Egypt. Egypt found enough attacking quality after New Zealand led early; not a good upset target in hindsight.",
      "settledAt": "2026-06-23T04:04:06.566Z"
    }
  ],
  "reviews": [
    {
      "id": "8caa1f258bbc47a2",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-15T10:25:52.726Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-manual-review",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "summary": "昨日判断日本方向正确但票种过贪：Netherlands 2-2 Japan 说明日本不败路径成立，但 moneyline away 没有兑现。以后遇到强非热门打传统强队，若胜赔高但平局路径同样强，应优先比较 draw / double chance，而不是硬推 underdog win。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "B-",
          "process": "核心洞察正确：日本确实能和荷兰对抗，并打出 2-2。执行错误：把“日本不败”过度升级为“日本胜”。",
          "lesson": "冷门不是都买赢球；要买最真实的结果形态。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "降低“客胜执念”，平局赔率在 3.4-4.2 且路径清晰时可以成为主单。",
        "继续保留赔率闸门，避免为了复盘翻本而追损。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "b56a7994fb0a2639",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-16T03:33:06.975Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-manual-review",
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "summary": "昨天四场全部打平：Spain 0-0 Cape Verde，Belgium 1-1 Egypt，Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay，Iran 2-2 New Zealand。GPT 主选 Belgium vs Egypt 平局命中，20U 按 3.90 盈利 58U。复盘结论不是机械追平局，而是确认昨天买对了结果形态：传统强队名气税、首战谨慎和非热门防守/反击路径共同把比赛拖进低比分或互有进球的平局。今天不能因为赢了就上头，也不能因为之前输过就怕输；只继续寻找最大可能化的最小不可能。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "A-",
          "process": "候选里没有去追 Spain-Cape Verde 这种更极端但路径更薄的冷门，而是选择 Belgium-Egypt 这种赔率仍有爆发、真实路径更厚的平局，过程正确。",
          "lesson": "复盘校准票种和路径，不校准胆量。赢球后仓位只随净值自然变化，不做情绪加注。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "不要把 2026-06-15 的全平样本外推成盲目追平局；每场仍要独立比较赔率、路径和真实概率。",
        "强非热门面对名牌热门时，优先比较 underdog win、draw、double chance 三种结果形态，选择最真实的一种。",
        "仓位维持 5%-7% 中性区间，除非边际优势极端清晰。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "4604ddbf888ef9fd",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-17T01:33:56.225Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-manual-review",
      "date": "2026-06-16",
      "summary": "已确认结果里，France 3-1 Senegal 让 GPT 的平局主单亏损 23U；Iraq 1-4 Norway 也验证了我们没有把 Iraq draw 升级为主单是正确的。France-Senegal 的过程不是完全错：Senegal 上半场和补时确实有机会，说明 underdog quality 判断成立；错误在于低估 France 下半场通过 Olise 中路解题、Mbappe 终结和阵容深度把平局路径打碎的能力。复盘结论：不因为输球缩手，但以后遇到顶级热门具备多种解题方式时，draw 需要更高赔率闸门或更强的低比分证据。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "C+",
          "process": "选中今天最强非热门的方向有依据，但把 Senegal 的竞争力过度转换成平局概率；France 的战术调整和终结质量被低估。",
          "lesson": "好 underdog 表现不等于结果能停在 draw。顶级热门如果有板凳和中路创造力，平局票必须要求更高价格。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "输球不降胆量，仓位只按本金自然变化；今天仍保持 5%-7% 中性仓位。",
        "强热门 vs 强非热门时，优先判断热门是否有第二解法：替补、定位球、中路创造、远射终结。",
        "继续比较 draw 与 double chance，不因为昨日 draw 输掉就机械回避平局。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "01e90561cb833a46",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-17T01:43:34.966Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-strategy-correction",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "summary": "用户纠偏：不能把目标误读成寻找均衡冷门。正确赌徒框架是先要有赚大钱的赔率倍率，再剔除绝无可能；不是求舒服的 EV 中位数。今天因此把 3.75 档的 England-Croatia 平局替换为 5.40 档的 Portugal-DR Congo 平局。目标区间改为优先 5.00-9.00，3.x-4.x 只有在真实概率明显碾压时才用，12.00+ 默认视为幻想，除非路径极其具体。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "Framework Update",
          "process": "原 pick 过于均衡，像交易员；修正后进入赔率倍率区间，同时保留 football path 约束。",
          "lesson": "爆冷系统不是保守胜率系统。赔率先拉开，再用球队实力、新闻、路径和仓位管理把绝无可能过滤掉。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "每日候选先按赔率分层：<4、5-9、10-12、12+。优先审 5-9。",
        "主单必须解释为什么它不是幻想，而不是为什么它最舒服。",
        "仓位随赔率波动调整，但不能用低赔率假装稳健。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "12b6aca33bb09622",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-18T03:39:49.366Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-manual-review",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "summary": "6月17日进化验证成功：GPT 纠偏后主单 Portugal vs DR Congo 平局命中，16U 按 5.40 盈利 70.4U，本金升至 442U。关键不是盲目追 5 倍，而是找到三件事同时成立：热门端存在失灵路径，冷门端存在真实进球路径，赔率进入有倍率区间。DR Congo 的防守骨架和 Wissa/Bakambu 出口不是幻想；Portugal 早进球后反而陷入节奏恐惧，Ronaldo/冠军叙事压力放大了热门失灵。模型要学习的是结构，不是结果崇拜。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "A",
          "process": "先被用户纠偏，从 3.75 均衡平局升级到 5.40 的高倍率平局；选择有明确 football path，并命中具体 1-1 路径。",
          "lesson": "爆冷收益最大化要优先寻找 5-9 倍区间，但每张票必须同时说明热门如何失灵、冷门如何进球、比分如何停住。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "赢了不加戏，仓位只随本金和赔率波动自然调整。",
        "继续优先筛 5-9 倍：直接胜、强 underdog draw、高赔率平局。",
        "把热门失灵拆成：主场/公众压力、老化核心、战术慢热、领先后保守、替补解题能力。",
        "把冷门进球拆成：反击出口、定位球、二点球、边路错位、对方门将/中卫不稳。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "8c01e16ee3e71262",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-18T04:09:06.234Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-strategy-correction",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "summary": "用户再次纠偏：自我进化不是保守，也不是从 3.75 升到 5.75 就结束。真正的爆冷产品要在结果层找到路径后，继续挑战比分层。今天普通 South Korea Win @5.75 被替换为 Mexico 1-2 South Korea correct score @17.50。Polymarket API 已尝试查询，当前可稳定拿到 World Cup Winner 大盘，但未稳定返回今天单场/比分市场；因此比分赔率标记为估算赔率，必须降低仓位。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "Framework Update",
          "process": "把结果层 pick 升级为比分层 pick，并明确普通韩国胜只能当 fallback。",
          "lesson": "如果已经能讲出具体比分路径，却仍只买普通胜负，那就是平庸。平庸不会让本金跃迁。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "每日先筛 5-9 倍结果层，再对最清晰路径挑战 12-25 倍比分层。",
        "比分票必须回答三件事：热门怎么进/怎么失灵，冷门怎么进，比分为什么停住。",
        "若 Polymarket/交易所没有单场比分市场，必须标记 oddsIsEstimate=true，并把仓位压到 1%-2%。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "f0f9cf511e5265c7",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-19T14:50:33.834Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-manual-review",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "summary": "6月18日比分层试错失败：Mexico 1-0 South Korea，GPT 的 Correct Score 1-2 亏损 8U，本金从 442U 回到 434U。复盘不是退回保守，而是升级筛选门槛：比分层必须先证明冷门方能稳定制造射门和禁区触球。昨天韩国胜的结果层本身就被 Mexico 的比赛控制和韩国射正不足削薄；我们把下半场提速叙事过度具体化成 1-2，却没有足够证据证明韩国能早早打出第一个进球。今日继续寻找高倍率，但比分票新增 Shot Creation Gate：没有真实射门来源，不许用故事升级到 correct score。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "C+",
          "process": "方向上敢于从 5.75 升到 17.50，符合用户要求的爆冷收益进化；错误在于把韩国首战反扑能力直接外推，没有验证 Mexico 是否会给足转换空间，也没有验证韩国是否能稳定造射门。",
          "lesson": "比分层不是保守与否的问题，而是证据门槛问题。必须同时满足热门失灵、冷门进球、冷门持续造射门、比分停止四个条件。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "不因为输掉 17.50 就退回 3 倍舒适区；继续优先挑战 12-25 倍比分层。",
        "新增 Shot Creation Gate：冷门方若缺少速度、定位球、禁区触球或明确射门来源，只能停在结果层或放弃。",
        "比分票仓位继续控制在 1%-2.5%；让赔率负责爆发，不用加仓制造刺激。",
        "如果热门端有清晰控场能力且不急躁，冷门比分必须下调概率，避免把叙事写成结果。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "c287eec63cd44711",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-20T16:54:15.504Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-manual-review",
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "summary": "6月19日 GPT 主单 USA vs Australia Correct Score 1-2 未中，实际 USA 2-0 Australia，亏损 9U，本金降至 425U。复盘结论不是停止比分层，而是修正时间结构：冷门方不能只在下半场变好，必须在前 25 分钟就有射门、定位球或压迫反击入口，否则比分票很容易先死。更重要的漏选样本是 Turkiye 0-1 Paraguay：我们把 Paraguay 1-0 reject 掉，但它正是高倍比分层应当珍惜的模型结构，早进球、热门控球但低质量狂轰、冷门靠纪律和门将守住。今天要把 Paraguay lesson 加回系统：上一场被强队打穿不等于下一场没有 1-0 路径，尤其当对手是会急躁控球的热门。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "C",
          "process": "澳大利亚的射门来源判断没有完全错，Irankunda 和替补确实带来下半场威胁；但比分层主单要求冷门路径更早启动。更大的过程错误是低估了 Paraguay 1-0 这种低比分防守冷门。",
          "lesson": "比分层优先寻找能在前 15-25 分钟制造事件的 underdog：定位球、逼抢失误、快速边路、门将压力。只靠后程反扑不够。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "新增 Early Event Gate：correct score 需要冷门方前 25 分钟有真实事件来源。",
        "不要因为连续比分票未中而降级到低赔率；但必须用更硬的时间结构过滤。",
        "重视 1-0 underdog 脚本：早球、热门低质量围攻、冷门禁区防守。",
        "今天继续在 12-20 倍区间找比分层，除非结果层赔率已经足够爆发且比分脚本不够清楚。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "e8151f7a6a6e68b9",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-21T16:17:25.739Z",
      "source": "chatgpt-manual-review",
      "date": "2026-06-20",
      "summary": "6月20日 GPT 主单 Netherlands vs Sweden Correct Score 1-2 未中，实际 Netherlands 5-1 Sweden，亏损 9U，本金降至 416U。复盘不是比分层太激进，而是我们把 Sweden 的进攻样本误读成能承受 Dutch 宽度和前场压迫；Sweden 的射门存在，但防守完全扛不住，比分路径在第17分钟已经死亡。真正的进化样本在同日另一场：Ecuador 0-0 Curacao。我们 reject 了 Curacao 1-1，但实际应更早识别 0-0 脚本：热门压制、低质量狂攻、门将极端发挥、弱队不需要进球也能让票爆发。今天要新增 Keeper Wall Gate：当 underdog 的进球路径薄，但防守/门将/热门终结低效证据极强时，允许从 underdog win/1-1 转向 exact 0-0。",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "grade": "C-",
          "process": "敢买高倍没有错，但错误地把 Sweden 的早事件来源等同于可承压防守。更严重的是没有把 Curacao 的 0-0 作为主线候选。",
          "lesson": "比分层不只买 1-2/2-1。0-0 是高倍爆冷的重要形态，尤其当冷门队有门将样本、纪律防守和热门低效样本时。"
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "新增 Keeper Wall Gate：门将强样本+热门低效+弱队低犯规纪律，可以直接挑战 0-0。",
        "连续失手不降低赔率目标，但要降低对冷门防守承压能力的乐观估计。",
        "不要把 underdog 必须进球当成固定假设；有时最高概率的小不可能是热门完全打不开。",
        "今日优先审查 Uruguay-Cabo Verde 0-0 与 Belgium-Iran 1-1/2-1，不碰已经开球的 Spain-Saudi。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fa4520cdbd9360ee",
      "createdAt": "2026-06-23T04:04:26.540Z",
      "source": "manual",
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "summary": "GPT Uruguay-Cabo Verde Correct Score 0-0 lost; actual score 2-2. The cold side was real, but the precision was wrong: Cabo Verde was not only a keeper-wall underdog, it had scoring agency through set pieces, transition pressure and opponent errors. Belgium-Iran 0-0 also showed that Keeper Wall Gate was valid, but the target match was mis-assigned.",
      "modelReviews": [
        {
          "modelId": "gpt",
          "result": "lost",
          "pnl": -8,
          "lesson": "Do not become conservative after a miss. Upgrade the filter: if the underdog has proven set-piece or transition scoring, move from 0-0 to 1-1/2-2 or underdog-result layer. Use exact 0-0 only when underdog agency is low and goalkeeper/favorite-inefficiency is the whole thesis."
        }
      ],
      "nextSlateAdjustments": [
        "Add Underdog Agency Gate: a longshot underdog that can score by set piece or transition should not be compressed into 0-0.",
        "Keep payout-first posture: losses should sharpen match selection, not push us back to low-odds balance.",
        "Target two-sided chaos when favorite defense has sourced structural problems and underdog forwards have pace/directness."
      ]
    }
  ]
}